Black Friday, Blue Christmas

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney
2008-12-1 11:33:22

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Happy Cyber Monday! If the crowds on Black Friday were any indication, it looks like consumers will be busy surfing the Web for deep discounts as well.

Sales over the Thanksgiving long weekend were surprisingly strong. The National Retail Federation estimated that consumers spent $372.57 on average, an increase from 7.2% from a year ago.

But the NRF is predicting just a 2.2% increase in holiday shopping sales this year, which would be the smallest increase since 2002. Even that forecast is considered too rosy by many other industry experts.

After all, the healthy sales on Friday may merely be yet another reflection of how weak the economy is: i.e. people rushed out to find the best bargains but may now retreat once the sales are over.

"Frankly, Black Friday serves as much more of a media spectacle than a true barometer of the relative health of the consumer and retailers. The next two weeks, when pricing reaches somewhat more normal levels, should tell the true tale," wrote Eric Beder, a retail analyst with Brean Murray Carret & Co., on Monday.

	Investment Basic Investment Overview Investment Approache Fundamentals Data Investment Stories www.fxj108.com	Black Friday, Blue Christmas By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney 2008-12-1 11:33:22 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Happy Cyber Monday! If the crowds on Black Friday were any indication, it looks like consumers will be busy surfing the Web for deep discounts as well. Sales over the Thanksgiving long weekend were surprisingly strong. The National Retail Federation estimated that consumers spent $372.57 on average, an increase from 7.2% from a year ago. But the NRF is predicting just a 2.2% increase in holiday shopping sales this year, which would be the smallest increase since 2002. Even that forecast is considered too rosy by many other industry experts. After all, the healthy sales on Friday may merely be yet another reflection of how weak the economy is: i.e. people rushed out to find the best bargains but may now retreat once the sales are over. "Frankly, Black Friday serves as much more of a media spectacle than a true barometer of the relative health of the consumer and retailers. The next two weeks, when pricing reaches somewhat more normal levels, should tell the true tale," wrote Eric Beder, a retail analyst with Brean Murray Carret & Co., on Monday.